Deepmind founder Hassabis shortens AGI timeline from five to two to three years
摘要
Google DeepMind 创始人、诺贝尔化学奖得主 Demis Hassabis 现认为 AGI 可能在两到三年内到来，其定义是系统能匹配人脑全部认知范围。今年早些时候他的估计还是三到五年，他称这一时间点正不断向当下靠近。他以“爱因斯坦测试”作为判断标准：仅在 1901 年前知识上训练的系统能否复现爱因斯坦 1905 年的论文。
摘要由模型根据原文撰写，以原文为准。
正文 · 原文
Oct 21, 2026
Demis Hassabis, Google Deepmind founder and Nobel laureate in chemistry, now believes AGI could arrive within two to three years. He defines AGI as a system matching the full cognitive range of the human brain.
That timeline keeps shrinking. Earlier this year, he said three to five years. "It's going to happen soon. My estimate keeps moving closer to the present," he told the Wall Street Journal. His litmus test is the "Einstein test": Could a system trained only on pre-1901 knowledge reproduce Einstein's 1905 papers?
Hassabis has compared AGI's impact to "10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed." Since stepping down from Google DeepMind, he's focused on Google's drug discovery AI spin-off Isomorphic Labs. On safety, he recently pitched an industry-funded oversight board under government control to vet models before release. Bad regulation, he warns, is worse than none.
AI News Without the Hype – Curated by Humans
Subscribe to THE DECODER for ad-free reading, a weekly AI newsletter, our exclusive "AI Radar" frontier report six times a year, full archive access, and access to our comment section.
注意转载授权 · 阅读原文
来源：The Decoder · the-decoder.com
引用原文
Matthias Bastian. Deepmind founder Hassabis shortens AGI timeline from five to two to three years[EB/OL]. (2026-10-22)[访问日期]. https://the-decoder.com/deepmind-founder-hassabis-shortens-agi-timeline-from-five-to-two-to-three-years/.